Price Action, Fifthening, Miner Exodus

0:00i'm just going to dip out for a second and get on a more stable internet connection 1:39hello mic check hello mic check thank you thank you hello mike hello mic check good hello mic check hello 1:58mike thank you thank you thank you hello michael good hello mike check good hello 2:05mic check good hello played in this game stopped 2:26the sound played in this screen hey good morning guys i have 3:17like an agenda today have a small agenda but it's mostly just free talk if you have anything you want to bring up feel free i 3:37think i'm mostly just excited to see ethereum classic taking off pretty awesome uh we can do some pontificating on this call 4:13already so taking 4:14off 5:22kick things off with the call classic community call number 18. 5:33today is march 22nd 2022 today we have um a free talk agenda pretty open and uh there's just a few little announcements i'd like to make before we start one is that now if this works and going forward we will be 5:53streaming these talks live on youtube and bro is kindly helping out on the back end of that and has posted a link to the youtube live stream in the general chat of the discord and we will be updating links uh going forward so if you're on youtube listening 6:12to this either live or in the future um please join us next time to ask questions in the chat on youtube which we'll also be keeping an eye on during these chats to interact with you guys on youtube as well from 6:34next week the time of this pool is going to be slightly earlier we haven't decided exactly when but it's either going to be one hour or two hours earlier than usual so either at uh 1300 hours or 1400 hours utc but 6:50we will update announcements on that kick things off now with um i guess the news of the week is ethereum classic has seen some pretty interesting price movements and uh a lot of people are excited to see in 7:10the last seven days uh a 69.69 increase in the price of etc which is of course very nice and everyone's happy to see that and uh i guess on this call we can have some thoughts and brainstorm about why that might be and why even 7:27despite the bear market that was been experienced uh etc had managed to kind of break that trend um was currency in the top 100 of this week at least for 7:45the for the last few days contributing factors to this one being the upcoming merge which is probably the most obvious thing uh there's been a recent post by uh ronin on the main ethereum classic website 8:05that seems to have been attracting a bit of attention essentially the idea is that etc is making itself um the new home for miners and by providing some confidence for miners it's also attracting their hash 8:23rate and mind share which in turn will hopefully contribute to the the price of etc the other potential is the uh upcoming fifth inning event which uh will be happening in about 30 days time this is every uh every 8:435 million blocks the issuance of etc will decrease by 20 and uh this was introduced in an ecip in about 2017 i believe am i writing that donald that 9:09ecip is to make ethereum classic a bit more like bitcoin is that right yes yeah that would be great [Music] 9:30bro is this something that's going to be able to be streamed on youtube as well can you please take that i 10:01am pressing here to there i 10:22don't see any video at the moment is not working the discord is not letting me share one 10:42of the the information is that um million three mine because it was ethereum at the time um and then from block one to block five million it was printing or 11:01issuing five btc per block then in the next era five to ten million from the block five million to ten million it printed four btc per block and now which is the third era is printing 3.2 etc per block and 11:20this is going to end on block 15 million which is more or less than 34 35 days and then from from block 15 million to block 20 million is going to print 2.56 adc per block so that's a decrease of 20 in 11:39each era that's why we call it fifth thinning instead of halving and the interesting thing uh is that the inflation rate today at in this era that that is that is current in which we are currently are is 11:59um 5.49 the last day of april is more or less when when the next era starts inflation in etc is going to go down from to 3.91 to 12:20give you uh an idea bitcoin the current inflation of bitcoin is 1.7 at the rhythm it is printing new btc per block uh and gold has historically been also 1.7 percent uh 12:37so etc is getting closer in in in in 2029 and in 2032 in 10 years is going to be 1.65 the inflation per 12:55year of edc so so that's uh that's more or less how the monetary policy works less inflation to the average holder in theory is that uh over time the 13:14value of that holding increases at least relative to previous levels of inflation because there's less cell pressure from miners who would basically be diluting the overall value by acquiring more of the the pi if you like yes 13:34the um when there's more inflation there's more atc coming in to the market every year at the current rate of five percent it's like five or six million etc per year so you need new buyers to absorb that new 13:52issuance per per year and as inflation as these these eras go passing by they more or less last 2.38 years each year and bitcoin is every four years so we are we 14:11wanted to go faster to catch up with bitcoin now and and its inflation uh but as the inflation goes down that means that less etc are printed or created per year so there's going to be given given the same amount of growth in new 14:29investors and demand for etc there's going to be less supply in relative terms as the inflation goes down so that that should help the price to go up and when the price goes up then it activates a 14:47series of things which is the security model of etc now because the price goes up that means that more miners are going to want to mine edc and if more miners mine etc then the network becomes more secure and if it becomes more secure then more developers 15:07are going to build their applications in ethereum classic as its code is law and more secure uh and immutable etc and the more uh decentralized applications that are built in etc the more it attracts end users um 15:28and and corporations and and people who want to use a secure blockchain and that attracts more investors who want to buy more etc and and the whole circle continues now this is this is the the design of nakamoto consensus that uh um 15:46it's like a virtuous uh circle play out in the bitcoin uh ecosystem right i believe there's a fairly famous um model called the stock to flow model which has been fairly popular in describing the future price predictions for 16:06bitcoin and has so far been quite accurate so um i do wonder if a similar thing could be projected for etc yes yes it's very easy the stock to flow model is basically it's the same uh it is the same way of describing or expressing 16:24the inflation but in in the other way for example if the inflation is five percent uh and if you do one divided five percent it's 20. 16:39so so um it's uh the stock to flow ratio is basically putting the the terms upside down and you express it instead of as a five percent you express it as the whole no twenty [Music] almost 16:59one over five percent is twenty so it's it's it's the same number but expressed um as the total supply existing supply divided the new issuance so currently etc is running at 20 and bitcoin is running at 17:16an at uh 60 the same as gold so etc has to go up uh all the way to 60 to have the same inflation rate or the same stock to flow ratio as um um as bitcoin and that's going to happen from now until 17:342032. additional uh the increased amount compared to bitcoin is kind of essential in order to encourage miners to start using ethereum classic um because it's profitable enough to mine uh if you were starting at the same level 17:53as bitcoin now then there'd be less incentive to mine ethereum yeah less payments per block yeah that's right now um when when we hit block 15 million the supply of etc should be around 18:10134 million 600 000 etc and by the year 2032 10 years the supply is going to increase due to the payment per blocks according to this schedule that we described 172 18:30million 500 000 um edc so it's more or less 38 million uh etc that are going to be printed uh or given to miners in the next 10 years and 18:48that's the incentive um also why not um this is just the supply no um be paid for miners in the next 10 years is is good because the mine is is what is 19:06incentive for miners to come and mine etc but the demand the demand from investors can be much more than 40 million uh in fact when etc goes up i mean it's because precisely because there's more demand than supply so 19:25etc can perfectly go up to a thousand or five thousand ten thousand thirty three thousand the next few years just because just because of adoption and the general demand that there is for for secure blockchains so price 19:41plus the supply are the incentive for miners just having a fixed emission curve adds some special properties to the blockchain that you just don't get with having an unbounded future inflation rate 20:01which chains like ethereum do and those two things uh might include from a minus perspective having an algorithmically like guaranteed future amount of inflation means that you can more accurately predict the hard rail requirements because 20:20you're just removing certain variables from the equation such as you know if the dev team decided to print a bunch of money that just can't happen on a theorem which sorry it can't happen on anything classic but it could on ethereum for example and the other benefit is that it keeps all 20:39parties sort of economically aligned and there's more of a balance of power so the devs don't have the power on ethereum classic to reward miners with more uh rewards which keeps everyone in check in a way whereas 20:57on uh in a proof of stake chain where the devs have control over the ability to print money then it seems pretty likely that they have a bit of a conflict of interest there and they are probably in or 21:17it's it's kind of unknown whether it's good or bad to increase the reward then they're probably going to tend towards making decisions that uh follow their financial interests over the benefit of the network as a whole so that's impossible on a fixed emission curve called 21:38the cantilon effect which is that when you print money in a fiat system uh the ones who receive the money first are the ones who benefit most of that emission because they are the ones who buy investments 21:57and goods and services first at the lower price and as the as the new issued currency circulates the prices go up and whoever uses the money after the 22:14first ones um uh have less benefits because the money is worth less relative to products goods and services and and investments and stuff like that in in in proof of work those beneficiaries are the miners um but 22:33their their compensation is made only after huge amounts of work and they have very small margins so they actually when if they get you know say a hundred dollars in every hundred dollars that they get in reward they invested 80 22:53or 90 dollars in gear and electricity to earn that reward um but not only that they they don't have any influence so even though they are cantalon insiders is what they're called and they receive the money first the edc first um they 23:13cannot issue that to themselves more money like like it happens in fiat systems um their incentive if miners control the proof-of-work network they would change the monetary policy to pay themselves more constantly you know it would turn into a fiat system but because because of this balance of power 23:31that you mentioned and because they don't have that power um the the the the whole system is balanced and and fair enough because they they get paid for real work in proof of stake um blockchains all that is is 23:49cancelled this is dissolved basically the stakers are going to be very big three or four very big stakers and they're going to very likely because they are the cantalon insiders and they have influence to change the rules of the network very likely they're going to constantly change the supply 24:09and pay themselves more and more as time passes by there's quite an obvious incentive to do that if you're competing with other proof-of-stake networks for uh staking capital so there's always going to be this constant arms race to increase 24:28the the yield to attract stake so that also just happens to benefit the the stakers so um it seems like quite an obvious uh trend as this uh yeah predictable trend the only the other thing that happens in proof of stake is that the the the the 24:48key the key to keep the stakers uh in check is the slashing mechanism no the the fact that there is a punishment if they send the bad blocks or they they they send blocks that are that are don't don't comply with the protocol and 25:08and um they can be slashed up to 30 percent but that's a joke because if they could they are the same ones who control development and the network and the supply they can perfectly pay themselves back and restore the that that slash so in the end it's not really a proof of stake 25:26network it's a proof of authority network where you have trusted nodes running the network which is even closer to the banking system than proof of authority because at least in proof of authority everyone 25:44knows what's going on right in proof of stake there's a like a a facade of decentralization but in reality it could be just completely centralized but no one really knows what's going on because the authorities are not made obvious yes i think that proof of taker they're they actually 26:03the nodes are going to be the big banks of the world i don't think that people are going to be able to stake and and get much rewards and and i think that jd morgan hsbc city bank wells fargo etc they're going to 26:22put billions of dollars in these systems to be stakers and they're going to get all the revenues and they're and they're going to run also the daps and lending and all that um so in that sense apparently proof-of-stake networks they can be they they can have a layer of anonymity 26:40stuff like that but in time everything is going to be in the end i think very similar to the banking system um um for example now it's it's i mean a great example of fiat 26:58systems has been the cancellation of russia by not only all the credit cards and paypal but also by the core um swift system now which is the core system which is a messaging system for banks to send money to each other and they canceled russia um 27:18and that is going to be identical in a proof-of-stake network imagine in the future when you have all the banks working on ethereum 2 or cardano or polkadot whichever other or binance chain whichever other of stake change that win um and there's a war like this of 27:38course um all the politicians and the and the public are going to pressure the banks and the stakers to cancel participants nate whole nations so it's going to be i think it's going to be practically the same it's 27:55impossible in dc this reality seems like entirely predictable and obvious and is proven based on past experience with ethereum i.e the dow fork and it's shown that if they can do it in that case then they're absolutely going to do it again if 28:14there's even more pressure than that so yeah it seems like uh and they and their persistent and repetitive changes of uh monetary policy and 28:33then they reduced the payment and then they increased the payment i think even even the change from proof of work to proof of stake is already a change in supply i think there's some changes there too well i guess their philosophy is very different and that's fine it's okay to have 28:52different approaches but uh i think it kind of misunderstands the whole point yes i i think they uh this kind of ties in with uh another interesting piece of news or i guess semi-drama that happened this week which was uh peter the dev having 29:12his uh twitter spread essentially making some very valid points about the design philosophy of ethereum and its over emphasis on adding additional complexity without really recognizing the potential downsides 29:32of adding that additional complexity and he has essentially concerns about ethereum becoming too unmaintainable because of all these additional features and trying to move too quickly and yeah basically 29:51the opposite of ethereum classic's conservative approach to upgrades comments uh earlier this week donald we have slightly different views on whether or not uh developers of 30:09clients need to be philosophically aligned with a project uh my my personal view is that uh i don't really mind regards to a project as long as they can deliver but uh i 30:26i can definitely be open to changing my mind on that if you had any doors to observations are true that complexity complexity is 30:43is bad for for blockchains that want to be secure now we spoke the other day in one of the calls um that there's many of i would say all of the proof-of-stake blockchains 31:02from avalanche to cardano polkadot eos etc they all seek and 31:19the almost speed of innovation and to have scalability is it already exists in the world it's no invention um you can use you can use cloud services or regular computing services that are hyper scalable and you can innovate all you want and if it breaks you just fix it 31:39manually it doesn't matter and so although all those all those projects the proof-of-stake projects that i mentioned are all like going in the wrong direction philosophically their objectives are wrong they're trying to compete with systems that already exist and not inventing anything at all um 32:00one of those things what the this thing of innovation is what peter um [Music] pointed out which is the acceleration of complexity as we also spoke about the other day the that economist her name is lynne adelin 32:19alden she wrote an article where she quoted an ethereum client developer saying that proof of work is extremely simple with with only a hundred lines of code you can you can code a proof-of-work blockchain and that the the 32:37clients that are going to be used for ethereum two have a hundred thousand lines of code um so inside there what peter is pointing out is there inside a hundred thousand lines of code there's there must be a lot of complexity and problems 32:56hidden that normal humans with our limited brains cannot see they're only going to find them out when it breaks um so that's that's a very that's very true what my observation about uh the almost recruiting 33:12someone like peter is that although i agree with that observation that doesn't mean that he's a a person that shares the principles of btc i mean he's he's he's he's a person that has always been in ethereum he has supported all the changes uh 33:30and the changes in [Music] from the time bomb postponement to to the changes in monetary policy he has always said that the people in ethereum classic we were criminals because we were we were helping the the hacker the dow hacker and 33:50and he thinks that uh classic is is is not worth anything i mean he's he's one of the typical persons that thinks that um is worthless so i just i just thought that bringing someone with that um if he were to come but with 34:08that mentality and not sharing the principles it's just more friction for us because we have to always be fighting against these people just like when uh when charles hoskinson came i mean he he has absolutely no idea what are the principles of edc he doesn't share them in 34:27fact he hates them and he talks and he trashes bitcoin and atc constantly whenever he can um so imagine to bring a core developer like peter such a high profile person to to to develop the client the core client and 34:48and us having this new friction with this new person i i prefer to bring someone that shares the values and loves etc and is passionate about edc um with the with 35:07charles it was uh specifically this whole point about innovation that he was adamant that serum classic was failing on um so i i think the thing is like there's many different um positions that either 35:26align or don't align with etc principles or philosophy and i think my only point really is that it's going to be difficult to recruit people that have all of the alignment immediately and it might be a case of sort 35:45of taking contributions essentially beggars can't be choosers to some extent and at the same time over time i think people will realize the the logic in in the decisions uh behind bitcoin 36:03and ethereum classic over time so as long as people that are you know somewhat aligned can contribute positively i don't see there's much of a big problem but i can definitely see the danger in uh 36:22certain oversized influences of hijacking the project which is definitely something that needs to be looked out for but at the same time there's always the um you know the ultimate dispute resolution mechanism of pain splits which kind of keeps people in check and kind of defaults everything to 36:40the conservative position which is one of the benefits of proof of work about about the merge so the 37:00question is do you think that the miners will try to influence and i don't know try to propose decisions about how the monetary uh supply order if 37:17the merit if the monetary supply should be changed or something like that they think they they'll try to to influence the development ethereum 37:36two when it emerges they're not going to be there anymore so they don't they don't have any yeah but if they move to etc they if they will try to make changes the 37:59client and change the rules and start their own chain but the theorem classic is is not going to change i'm sure by now that what they should do is say that a huge i'll say share miners come and they're a huge economic group collectively and 38:18they say okay we want edc to increase the payment from 2.56 to 5 like before they have to do they have to put it in the ecip system and it's going to be rejected immediately so chain 38:38but i think it's it's it's absolutely i don't think i haven't heard anything uh regarding that and i don't think that miners were the drivers of the changes in monetary policy in here they they're always very passive 38:58miners really really have a lot of work running machines and and and buying electricity and trying to earn money it's not a business that they you become rich tomorrow just by mining it's a lot of work data centers maintaining the machines uh teams uh 39:19doing deals with the electricity companies etc and also on a daily basis trying to see what place is profitable what place is not profitable etcetera i haven't seen miners uh in ethereum or here in classic being actively almost 39:39active it's changing rules or anything like that but if if they were to come to etc i think it would be rejected immediately i don't know somebody else going 40:00to be very almost it's practically impossible to change the monetary policy of etc at this point and if it was done it would certainly cause a chain split so it would cause far more trouble than it's worth doing um and 40:18it's likely that the chain that tried to change the the fee would not be profitable to mine anyway because it would just be not used have understanding 40:36of the whole sound money argument and having a fixed supply is something that being inherited from the bitcoin mining whole sort of philosophy is something that i think a lot of miners inherently understand and wouldn't 40:55really want to mess with things too much in that regard developers that could you know implement new 41:10eips or staking protocols to do much you know if we if the miners were you know wanted to to 41:27really push a position i think that ethereum would have forked a year or two years ago as proof of stakes started to heat up i mean fundamentally if you look at the amount of hardware invested in ethereum it was it was worth an attempt to try and fork ethereum before ice age and you 41:46know all the other all the other bombs came in youtube from bgd 42:06it's as follows donald's donald is right but the adoption will need low fees 0.1 etc is not much now but when it is a thousand 0.1 etc is a lot how can we fix that and i'm guessing this is referring to the minor reward in us dollar terms and 42:25if the price of etc goes up a lot then the miners are going to be getting a lot more profit is that something that needs to be fixed or is that just a function of the network reward per block is the 42:45issuance of new edc and the fees of the transactions in ethereum and i think that the observation is okay it's 3.2 and it's going to go to 2.56 and then 20 less 20 less and and i think that 43:02the fear is what happens when the fee is too low the reward is too low and miners are not going to get paid a lot um when one way of compensating that is that it's highly likely that atc is going to go up in price so even though every 43:192.38 years the the reward is going to go down by 20 percent but it's very likely that this is going to go up by 10x 20x or 50x so it's good they're going to get just like bitcoin happening bitcoin the history of bitcoin um they're 43:38going to get much higher revenues anyway even even though the the nominal issuance per block is lower and the other thing is that in a network like etc that has a capacity of 1.5 million transactions per day which is very low because it's not scalable it's unscalable uh 43:57transaction fees are going to be very high and and paradoxically um the the network that has proven that that model works to pay miners with fees is is ethereum ethereum many 44:16many times many months has paid much more to miners in transaction fees than in the actual minor rewards uh i think it was like at some points it was four times four to one or five to one um and an ethereum has paid billions of dollars 44:35to minor so it when ethereum classic bases uh in my my vision is that when hearing classic stays as a layer one of a fork network and it's recognized and it goes up and it's it's worth a thousand or 8 000 or 33 000 the volumes are going to be much higher in terms of transactions per 44:54day and the fees per transaction are going to be much higher as well and those are going to be another large source of revenues for miners and and you just go and see how the revenues the mining revenues have been in ethereum and ethereum has 100 proven that model um 45:13so we only depend that etc becomes so popular that it's so there's so much activity that that the volume goes up and that the piece goes up go up i don't know if i explained it correctly yeah 45:31i think you did uh you got it i i i misinterpreted that question i think and i was looking at from the miner's point of view but i think the question after rereading it is more about how users of dapps can uh how 45:50etc can encourage adoption by keeping fees low as it is now okay so but at least i i answered a different question but at least it's half of the answer but now the other the the the the same phenomenon that miners as the suppliers of block space uh are going to get 46:09paid more and more as the price of etc goes up and as the price per the ammo as the fee per transaction goes goes up that is the opposite for the demand side no that users and that developers now we 46:25are enjoying extremely low etc fees per transaction but the truth is that etc is going to stay unscalable forever just like bitcoin and just like here one is now therefore when volumes increase all 46:44the dots that work on etc the the the retail that's the consumer facing that very likely they're going to move the interfaces to layer 2 systems or layer 3 systems that are going to be much more scalable so they're going to be able to process billions of transactions per day but 47:04only settle big transactions inside atc um so the model where you have like in ethereum one the whole dap and the interface and the smart contracts and the transfers and all the transactions and the wallet and everything works in inside ethereum that's not that's not going to work in the 47:24future in the future you're going to have layers and you're going to have layer 2 layer 3 layer 4 and and the dapps are going to be distributed in components and in different layers and they're going to use etc only for the high value co the high value back end the almost logic of the dots and to move large amounts of money 47:44but um you're not going to have 0.001 cents per transaction inside etc that's going to be on on layer two one one mo a person who is doing it right in that sense uh is um patient money uh 48:01his project is called classic rewards and he's doing this two layered um construction no he's putting the interface and the high volume transactions are going to be in bnb and and the rewards to the users i don't know how the game works or the nfts and the 48:21game work but apparently there's going to be a reward in edc and that's going to happen inside edc so the so the dap is going to be a two layer that and that's going to be the future of dapps not only in etc but in bitcoin in every everywhere else in fact i think here two is going to be a 48:40layer two uh network uh and a lot of volume is going to occur inside the theorem two and on on on the layer 3 which is the rollups and channels and all that and then that system is going to turn around and it's going to settle on bitcoin and atc that 48:59is already happening for example there's already 1 million etc in the in the form of uh wetc and bnb so people are trading etc inside bnb uh but but the but um in 49:18in the layer one which is edc in that in that layout um is inside edc so so i i think that we don't have to in this vision for etc at least i think that high volume and cheap transactions is not the future of etc in fact it wouldn't 49:38be good because miners would not be compensated to provide security right that would also make it difficult to uh sync with the network if there's so much bloat on there and of course centralization problems in that regard i 49:55would also comment that i would include exchanges as layer 2s and it's not obvious that they are in the conventional blockchain world but in a lot of ways most of the transactions that happen on ethereum classic are not settled on ethereum classic they're settled well they're they're 50:14done on an exchange and then only settled as you say uh when people withdraw deposit onto the main chain and that's the case for all cryptocurrencies so all currencies are already using l2 as their main scalability factor yes i i consider exchanges like binance and coinbase and kraken and all those and 50:35um i consider them yeah higher layers i i would say they are in layer four in my my model but yeah they're they they process billions of transactions per day that 50:54the same kind of model exists in all monetary systems right like the the international clearinghouses only do tiny well they do huge and infrequent settlements but then as you go down the stack in the number of layers you have uh banks and then credit 51:13cards and then even smaller use cases like individual companies that sell transactions between them um and it's all it's all in this layered approach i agree it's exactly the same as the banking system um and in 2014 2015 we 51:33believe that all the transactions of the world were going to happen inside bitcoin and ethereum and then when the block size war came in 2015 to 2017 we all realized that that the blockchain industry was going to be layered now and and and that's where the lightning 51:52network was born and or today lightning networks layer two of bitcoin and um now bitcoin can understand transactions from smart contracts in layer two so so there's gonna be our contracts on bitcoin but on layer two or layer three so 52:11so it's definitely going to be like you say it's going to be like the banking system that's 52:16in that system in that sense let 52:35me know when uh when you want me to to start streaming if if we want to do a bit of the did 52:54you want to show some charts yeah small technical analysis what do you do are you gonna share your screen yeah the 53:16community calls so excite and what a perfect time to do it yeah it's okay for 53:40me for example everything started around thanos and mess around here somehow and we all know what happened here with that great pump so i think uh this 53:57move this very high move was uh was uh by the time when uh there was a serious uh serious concerns about the ether moving to proof of stake but that didn't happen it should have happened around this date in 54:18june i think june or july it didn't happen we had the magneto hard fork in july so i'm calling this area no man's land because this is a fighting area between bulls and 54:36bears we have these two lines september we can see here [Music] more clearly when we dropped [Music] by 54:55the same time with bitcoin from 73 or something we dropped hard and then we tried here a push again and it 55:13didn't work and we dropped and here we have the russian ukraine were and now we are recovering in this no man's land area so in my opinion i think the bullish trend will 55:30start around 60 because we already tried here and here we had a push a very nice push here showing that this is our how 55:49should i say the current value but we also need to keep in mind that we had the we didn't had a lot of projects coming in so during this period from let's say september till the december we 56:07had a lot of nfts uh popping up we had uh olson an nft market um now we also have heber for swapping they are still developing stuff back 56:28here in uh january we had mystique so the up cuts from ethereum and these four candles that we see here we we are 56:47just a recovery after a bearish trend in my in my opinion we also see here a nice smooth push that didn't go through exactly here at the 36 which i think this is our our 57:04main key price for uh for uh making a more up movement around the end of april early 57:22may right so this is where the 15 will happen hope 57:40i did it right so i draw here a pitchfork if we look for targets 58:09this fib going a lot up that doesn't mean it will happen but it is showing different levels like this level at the 200 this level at 300 and 58:28this level at 600 so what we need right now is to to see if our previous all-time high which 58:47is around here it happened in 2008 so you can see the price is around here now in 2008 our [Music] previous ultiheim was 33 around 43. 59:04and we need to see now if this price transforms into support right so this may be a very good area for [Music] for investors traders to to i don't know to support the price and hold 59:26so that 150 dollars and from there dollars 59:57[Music] if we look at the macd basically the bullish trend on the weekly starts at zero so like 1:00:15it crossed over here in 2020 it went whoop group and personally i'm expecting the same thing that will happen we we should know in about two weeks or so if 1:00:35uh if we have a bull trend on the weekly not my trading algo to flip so 1:00:54the last flip was here the last bullfrip was on to august last year and then it flipped back because there wasn't any momentum for making higher moves and from here the 1:01:15the bearish trend started in late september or mid september and it went through to till now this these are our first big green 1:01:31candles in a plot of time is to to go above 60 dollars and and 1:01:50then i don't know a try to move up to 130 dollars or blast off and test our 1:02:09first line from 220 dollars we may see a correction or it could it will just move slide just move slowly up like bitcoin did in 2020 1:02:29it had i think 33 green weeks bullish weeks till it went to 64 64 okay [Music] 1:03:12yet as mentioned earlier it seems like the next few months are going to be potentially some of the most important in ethereum classics life so far given the external things that are happening and the current sort of apparent 1:03:31undervalued and massive potential upside um that's going to be hopefully this year ethereum 1:03:49classic will prove that that it should be a 20 top coin and [Music] i think it will be great we'll see we'll 1:04:07see big big swings and i just hope that capital and will 1:04:27attract institutions and more development will happen so it's all good this will be a big year in my opinion the top cryptocurrencies is donald's approach which 1:04:46is basically remove anything that's not proof of work and you'll find that ethereum classic is already top five pretty much i think proof of work will will 1:05:04continue heating up uh my personal view and dream is that uh that we see it during classic uh um above uh bitcoin cash and uh litecoin so 1:05:23we need to smoke them yeah definitely testing um bitcoin 1:05:42cash it's uh it's very very close at the moment yeah i think it's 1 billion behind so [Music] we all saw that in crypto we have large amounts invested very fast like 1:06:02in two days so ethereum went 1 billion up so it's not impossible but right sorry this this week up 69 yeah 1:06:21something like that [Music] safe to say that the bears saw that it wouldn't go down like previous lows or something like that and i 1:06:40think this move also made bears exit their positions i think we're very close to bch and lycon and and those even because of what you say they can go up very fast in very few days and and surpassed 1:07:00them but um imagine that we were like 40 and now we are 28 or 29 um but um also think think think about it that you cannot build anything on a litecoin or bitcoin cash or dosh ethereum classic is the same or even better in terms of security 1:07:20and you can build applications um has more transactions many days in doge and and and bitcoin cash i think uh all the time etc 1:07:38has 60 to 70 000 transactions and the others have less only litecoin has consistently more transactions than than etc but you can build stuff on if you're a classic so i think that it's it's not a wish or a dream i think it's it's it's a fact that it's going to happen we're 1:07:58going to flip the three of them pca [Music] litecoin and bitcoin cash but i saw a few articles about they're 1:08:15also making smart contracts in some way i'm i'm not sure how smart they are but it's a real competition out there so let's see what happens based 1:08:36chains can have and already do i mean bitcoin technically has smart contracts in the form of script but they're never going to be able to have the same level of expression as a fully uh touring complete evm with accounts model system which means that applications are going to 1:08:54be either very limited or much more difficult to implement and the benefit of etc is that you can i mean there's such a massive potential for developers to buy a bunch of etc and then just copy and paste and redeploy something from ethereum and a 1:09:14make money on their application but also you know speculate on the price of etc that they can somewhat control by deploying and increasing the value of etc so there's i feel going to be a gold rush moment for etc where people figure this out and start deploying i mean it's already happening slowly but i think it's going to snowball 1:09:36swap and others custom i will open the floor up if anyone wanted 1:09:55to bring up a topic to discuss there's still time so feel free if you wanted 1:10:00to talk about something there's 1:10:18any more questions the idea of smart contracts in bitcoin those litecoin and bitcoin cash [Music] what 1:10:37they can do with it they can they can add functionality so so that they understand executions of of of programs outside of the blockchain and they receive the the script the product and they execute the transactions according to that that 1:10:57result but neither bitcoin or light coin doge nor bch and you cannot write a whole dap and send it to the network and the code of the dap is going to be replicated in all the nodes of the network and then anyone can send the transaction 1:11:15to that app and execute the code that's not possible that's a smart contract the what what the bitcoin guys and litecoin those and bc if they're saying that they can do smart contracts like that bitcoiners were saying now bitcoin has a mark on that's a lie that's 1:11:33a total net complete lie a a decentralized smart contract blockchain you send the code the full code and the logic of the application you send it to the network and it gets replicated in all the nodes of the network and it becomes a decentralized application 1:11:51that doesn't exist in utxo systems i wanted to clarify that because especially for new people they they they don't understand these distinctions and and they can be lied to very easily like what 1:12:08the bitcoin guys do it's never going to be the same that it added this additional uh evm functionality which uh the 1:12:27utxo chains just simply were not designed to to be some some level of compromise in terms of what your contracts can do and whether they're smart pm or just somewhat clever contracts yeah 1:12:46that that tap route gives bitcoin smart contracts is a lie in the same way that vitalik and charles say that proof of proof of stake is more secure than proof of work the same is the same kind of life cheers 1:13:08donald see you next week hopefully take care thank you yes um [Music] there were some comments that i just wanted 1:13:27to relay uh from the discord in this chat so from cosmo squawk somewhat devil's advocate question how do you think the dynamic of things will go when almost all of the 110 million etc is mined for miners would 1:13:44are still mine and i think the answer to that is very similar to bitcoin and the answer is yes they would still mine because by that point which i believe will be in about 20 45 or later transactions 1:14:04and miners will still be paid by transaction fees and as we've seen in ethereum miners are already getting more reward from mining fees as opposed to the block reward itself so it's very likely that the block reward the base block reward is going to be 1:14:24insignificant compared to the fees collected by miners through transaction fees anyway way before we reach that point the 1:14:45call for this week thank you for joining us and for all our contributors and question askers and people speaking if you'd like to join us next week you can find us in the theme classic discord channel and on youtube which will be live streamed going forward so you can ask questions in either the chat or 1:15:05you can jump in with voice chat or you can post a message on youtube and we'll try and get to all of those comments so yeah thanks for joining us and see you next week and look out for the new timing which we will announce in the discord channel so take care thanks for joining us bye-bye

Price Action, Fifthening, Miner Exodus

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